Deterministic ML for rare events

Catch the rare events today’s models miss. Live in a day.

The stroke patient who is missed, the heart-failure case that turns fatal, the radar signal that fails, the claim that should have been challenged — standard models miss them because they are rare. MathFi.ai is built for exactly those cases. Feature Refinery works out which of your data columns actually carry signal and drops the rest. Model Crucible takes the refined data, or your own CSV, runs multi-algorithm training and serves predictions behind an API. Same data in, same decision out, every time.

Rare-event edge
Highest minority-class F1 in 6 of 7 benchmark datasets — the rare case that standard models trade away for headline accuracy
Live the same day
Labelled data in the morning, a model your application can call by the afternoon. CPU only — no GPUs, no cluster, no queue
Deterministic and auditable
Same data in, same decision out. Every prediction can be replayed and defended to an auditor
Hosted, your cloud, or private
Run it as our hosted service, in your own cloud, or in a private cloud when the data cannot leave it
Built for data teams
Feature Refinery does the column work your scientists never get time for, and every run is an independent model to benchmark theirs against. Analysts can drive it too

Measured where it matters: the rare, costly cases

Under class imbalance, headline accuracy hides failure, so we measure the minority class: the stroke patient, the failing signal, the fraudulent claim, the case you actually care about. Here is how MathFi.ai performs against the five libraries most teams already run.

66%

Of the patients who went on to have a stroke, found. XGBoost finds 30%, and F1 is a third higher than the next best method.

84.21%

Of the heart-failure patients who die, flagged for escalation. The best other method flags 68.42%; XGBoost flags 52.63%.

96.24%

Of rare warranty fraud surfaced for review, against 82 to 84% for the gradient-boosting methods. Those methods keep higher precision and F1 on this dataset.

Minority-class F1 score, in percent (higher is better). F1 balances how many of the rare cases you catch against how many false alarms you raise. MathFi.ai versus the best of five standard libraries (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, Random Forest, Logistic Regression) on each public dataset.
DecisionMathFi.ai · F1 %Best other · F1 %
Stroke screening27.0420.31
Cardiac risk detection84.2082.63
Signal integrity / anomaly detection97.4491.89
Credit approval88.5086.21
Consumer default risk63.6059.70

Highest minority-class F1 in 6 of 7 datasets, and the highest or joint-highest recall in all 7.

Accuracy is a dangerous metric for rare-class events. On a public stroke-screening dataset, one competitor scored about 90% accuracy yet found only around 26% of the patients who went on to have a stroke: it earned its score by predicting "no stroke" almost every time. MathFi.ai found 66% of them. When the event you care about is rare, accuracy rewards the model that ignores it; recall and precision on the rare class tell you whether the model actually works.

MathFi.ai benchmark, July 2026. Seven public datasets. Identical train and test splits. Five standard libraries as baselines.

Where a method beats us on a secondary metric, our study says so plainly.

See the full benchmark study, all seven datasets →

Models that hold up when your data changes

Once a model is live, its data, its concepts and its performance all drift. For organisations that run hundreds of models, keeping them accurate often costs more than building them.

MathFi.ai is designed to need less of that work.

Fewer parameters, less drift

Cellular Balanced Learning (CBL), the architecture under MathFi.ai, has a small parameter space and only two hyperparameters. Drift has fewer paths into prediction errors, so a model is less likely to degrade abruptly when the data shifts.

Less retraining

Less recalibration per model means less MLOps effort. The saving grows with the number of models you run in production.

Faster response

When drift appears, Feature Refinery analyses the new data and shows what changed in its structure and statistics. It then builds new representations, so you restore performance sooner than with a manual investigation.

Your data already knows. Getting it to tell you is the problem.

The answers are in your data.

Which claims are fraudulent. Which customers are about to leave. Which applicants will repay. Years of labelled history sit in your systems, and the patterns are in there.

Turning data into decisions has been slow and scarce.

It has meant specialists you cannot hire fast enough and a quarter of work per model: cleaning, feature engineering, tuning, validation, deployment, monitoring. Most organisations get a handful of models a year through that pipeline, if any.

So most of the value never ships.

The predictable fraud gets paid out. The savable customers leave. The good applicants get declined. Not because the signal is missing, but because the route from data to production has been too long to walk more than a few times a year. That is the bottleneck MathFi.ai removes.

Clinical risk, signals, claims, credit: the decisions you cannot afford to get wrong

MathFi.ai works on any decision that lives in labelled tabular data: risk, retention, operations, quality, safety. But the fastest payback is where the case you care about is rare and each miss is expensive. That is where standard models are weakest and MathFi.ai is strongest, so it is where most teams start.

Your source does not have to start as tabular data. Speech, images and sensor signals are all in scope once expressed as ML features: speech as time-series features, images as structured, labelled data capturing properties such as pixel intensity, texture and shape descriptors, and radar and sensor output as numeric signal descriptors.

Clinical and safety risk

Flag the rare, high-stakes cases that population-level screening misses.

Equipment and operational failure

Predict rare breakdowns from operational data before they become downtime.

Insurance claims

Pay honest claims fast and route the small minority that deserve investigation.

Fraud detection

Surface more fraudulent transactions, claims and applications for review, with fewer honest customers flagged along the way.

Credit and default risk

Approve more of the customers who will repay and catch more of those who will not, instead of trading one error for the other.

Customer churn

Identify the accounts likely to leave while there is still time to keep them, and aim retention spend where it changes the outcome.

Where teams start: rare, high-cost decisions. Clinical risk, signal and anomaly screening, insurance claims, fraud and credit are the entry wedge, because that is where a same-day model pays for itself first, and where our benchmark lead is clearest.

Morning: your data. Afternoon: a served model.

The flow below is not a roadmap; it is a working day. You provide labelled data in the morning. Feature Refinery cleans it and selects the features that matter. Model Crucible takes the refined data, or your own CSV, and runs multi-algorithm training. MathFi.ai serves the predictions. By the end of the day your application, or your agent, is calling a live endpoint and getting deterministic decisions back.

You / Your Agent
Choose the decision, bring the data
Pick what to predict and supply a wide set of raw features, with labelled outcomes.
MathFi.ai
Feature Refinery
Cleans the raw, noisy data and selects the features that matter.
MathFi.ai
Model Crucible
Runs multi-algorithm training on the refined data, or on your own CSV.
MathFi.ai
Publish
The trained model goes live as an endpoint, in whichever environment you chose to run it.
You / Your Agent
Production inference
Your app or agent calls the model through an API and gets a decision back.
The whole flow can complete in a single day.

A day is possible because of what is underneath. MathFi.ai runs on Cellular Balanced Learning (CBL), a genuinely novel machine-learning architecture our co-founders invented after decades of building production models the slow way. CBL is not a wrapper around open-source libraries; it changes how the model is built. Rather than searching across more than a hundred settings for a good decision boundary, CBL constructs dynamic cell boundaries that adapt to the structure of your data as it trains, and the relationships between them are learned inside the architecture.

That is why a CBL model exposes two hyperparameters where a gradient-boosted model exposes more than a hundred. The tuning decisions a specialist normally makes by hand, learning rate, depth, sampling, regularisation and the rest, are internalised in how CBL is built. The expertise sits in the architecture, not the operator, which is what lets a team without deep ML staff get a strong model, and lets a team that has one skip the tuning marathon.

It also earns its keep on quality. Most business prediction problems suffer from class imbalance: the cases that matter are a small minority of the data, and conventionally trained models sacrifice them for overall accuracy. Because CBL handles imbalance structurally rather than through oversampling patches, the same-day model is also the one with the highest minority-class F1 in six of our seven benchmarks. And it is a service, not a software project: MathFi.ai runs and serves the model for you, in our cloud or in yours, with every decision reproducible and auditable.

Read how CBL works in the docs →

The rare, costly decisions are where MathFi.ai pulls ahead

Most teams have tried at least one route to better predictions, and two things go wrong. The hard models, defeated by feature selection, more than a hundred hyperparameters and overfitting, often never reach production, so the value never lands. The ones that do ship are weakest exactly on the rare, costly cases. That gap, felt most by smaller teams frustrated at how little their current approach returns, is what MathFi.ai is built to close.

Versus building it yourself

Doing this in-house means months of work per model and specialists who are hard to hire and harder to keep. Picking the right features, managing more than a hundred hyperparameters and fighting overfitting means many attempts never reach production at all, and the ones that do patch rare events rather than solve them, with oversampling tricks like SMOTE and class weights. MathFi.ai handles the rare cases structurally, in how the model itself is built.

Versus the big ML platforms

The enterprise platforms are expensive and slow to adopt, and at the end of a long tuning run they hand back the same gradient-boosted models your team already runs, with the same blind spot on rare events. You pay platform prices to automate the status quo.

Versus newer tabular and foundation-model AI

The new generation of tabular foundation models is genuinely interesting, but it is not deterministic. If you cannot reproduce a decision, you cannot audit it, explain it to a regulator, or debug it when it goes wrong. MathFi.ai gives the same decision on the same data, every time.

Versus general-purpose LLMs

LLMs are probabilistic by design. That is the right property for language and the wrong one for a decision that has to be trusted: a lending call, a fraud flag, a churn intervention that must be right and repeatable. Use an LLM to talk. Use MathFi.ai to decide.

Not one model, a choice of trade-offs

Multi-algorithm, one dataset

Model Crucible trains a model with each of its algorithms on the same data, so you can pick the balance between missed cases and false alarms that fits your decision.

Fewer missed cases and fewer false alarms at the same time; deterministic and auditable; your data team ships more models; and it is live the same day.

The platform around the models

Which of these sounds like you?

Mid-market, little or no ML staff

You know the answers are in your data. Fraud losses, churn, bad debt: you can see the cost lines, but building models has meant hiring a team you cannot find or afford. MathFi.ai gives you a live prediction capability without the department. Bring labelled data; get a served model.

Data-science lead with a backlog

You have the team, and a queue of rare-event problems that resist the standard toolkit. MathFi.ai clears that queue: same-day models with minority-class recall your current stack struggles to reach, deterministic outputs your risk committee will accept, and your scientists freed for the work only they can do.

Regulated and agentic builders

You operate where every decision may need to be explained, to a regulator, an auditor or a customer. Or you are building agents that act on predictions and cannot ship on a model that answers differently on the same input. MathFi.ai is deterministic end to end, so every decision is reproducible on demand.

Agent-ready today

MathFi.ai models are callable from your agents, copilots and applications through a documented REST API with an OpenAPI spec. Every prediction returns a deterministic, auditable decision your systems can log, replay and explain from the exact inputs the model saw. This is the difference between an agent you demo and an agent you deploy. Native MCP support is on the roadmap; today MathFi.ai is agent-usable through standard API integration.

Read the API docs →

Built by people who lived this problem for decades

MathFi.ai was built by three operators who spent their careers shipping production machine learning and data systems at scale, and hit the exact wall that Cellular Balanced Learning was invented to remove. Between them, more than 20 granted patents.

SA
CEO & Co-Founder

Inventor of Cellular Balanced Learning. 25 years building machine learning, algorithms and patents at Fujitsu Laboratories, Tesco, import.io and Syncron. PhD from the University of Surrey.

LinkedIn
DF
CTO & Co-Founder

17 years in backend and platform engineering, including at Tesco. Built the platform that takes CBL from research to production scale.

LinkedIn
SO
Non-Exec Chair & Co-Founder

25 years leading product and technology at scale across Amazon, Tesco, GfK and startups.

LinkedIn

Bring us the prediction you most need to get right.

We are choosing a small number of design partners. Bring a decision your current models get wrong too often, or a prediction you have never been able to build at all. We build a high-performance model on your own data and show you the lift against your own held-back validation data. This is for leaders who want to get past the tooling and straight to impact.

GenAI taught machines to talk. The next decade is teaching machines and agents to decide, and those decisions must be right, repeatable and auditable. MathFi.ai is the deterministic layer that GenAI calls when a decision must hold up: the prediction utility beneath the agentic enterprise.